2013 NBA Draft: Who Goes #1?

The Cavaliers own the #1 pick in the upcoming draft. What will they do? (Credit Gus Polly)

The 2013 NBA Draft “tips off” live June 27, 2013, from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. The NBA Draft has been dissected by many, including by us here at SidelineMOB (read the NBA 1st round mock draft here), but in just a few short days, all those projections will be over. At 7:00 p.m. EST Thursday evening, reality will begin to take form.

As of this moment, the Cleveland Cavaliers hold the rights to the #1 pick in the 2013 NBA Draft. About six weeks ago, everything seemed crystal clear: the Cavaliers would select Kentucky center Nerlens Noel, and the rest of the dominoes would fall into place behind Noel.

But as the NBA Draft has drawn nearer, questions have begun to swirl. Would Cleveland be better off trading down and obtaining more value for the #1 pick than they might get with Noel? Is Nerlens Noel not as healthy as some believe? Is Alex Len actually a better “big man” prospect than Noel? Much of this, of course, is just NBA analysts having too much time to think about everything.

But what are the odds of multiple scenarios taking place when the Cleveland Cavaliers make their final decision regarding the #1 pick in the 2013 NBA Draft? Let’s take a look at how we see the top 4 scenarios, in terms of the possibility of each happening.

2013 NBA Draft: Cavaliers’ #1 pick options

1. Cleveland Cavaliers draft Nerlens Noel: 50%. 

Sometimes, the “common sense” choice is the proper choice. Yes, Nerlens Noel has knee issues and will not be ready for the beginning of the 2013 NBA season. But the last surefire #1 pick with injury issues happened to be Cleveland’s 1st overall pick in 2011, some guy named Kyrie Irving. That’s worked out pretty well, hasn’t it?

Kentucky seems to have a monopoly on the #1 overall pick. Other than Irving, John Wall went #1 in 2010, and Anthony Davis went #1 in 2012. None of these picks has been a bust… the trouble is, no center chosen #1 in the NBA Draft has been a perennial star since Tim Duncan in 1997. Nerlens Noel could be a dominant defensive force for years to come, but are the Cavaliers willing to risk the possibility of drafting Michael Olowokandi?

2. Cleveland Cavaliers trade #1 overall pick: 30%.

The Cavaliers are more than one #1 pick away from making the jump to contenders in the Eastern Conference. Yes, they’ve expressed interest in Celtics forward Paul Pierce, but Pierce’s career has a shelf life. If Cleveland isn’t entirely sure about Nerlens Noel, then it’s in their best interest to trade down. The issue would be finding a suitable trading partner.

If Cleveland can trade down and remain in the top 6-7 picks, they still would have a shot at landing Maryland C Alex Len. Figuring out a way to swing that would be a potential huge score for Dan Gilbert. FanSided’s Brian Rose reported a potential deal involving Charlotte’s #4 pick and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist for the #1 pick, which could definitely still leave Alex Len on the table at #4.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers draft Alex Len: 14%.

This scenario would only unfold if the Cleveland Cavaliers believe that Alex Len is a better prospect than Nerlens Noel – so much of a better prospect, in fact, that they’re also willing to pass over Ben McLemore, Victor Oladipo, Otto Porter Jr., Anthony Bennett and Trey Burke. Were the Cavaliers to use their #1 pick on the 7’1″ Len, Dan Gilbert would be placing his reputation squarely on the line – especially if Nerlens Noel returns from injury and is a beast.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers draft another player: 6%.

Yes, there may be options in the 2013 NBA Draft that are a bit more sure than Nerlens Noel and Alex Len. But the Cavaliers’ primary need is interior, frontcourt defense – which was downright abysmal in 2012. When Anderson Varejao went down, there wasn’t much left – and that’s a problem.

Who else would the Cavaliers take? They have no need at point guard thanks to Kyrie Irving. Shooting guard might be an option, so Ben McLemore or Victor Oladipo could find themselves going #1 – but the need is far less pressing than a strong interior player. Ultimately, taking a player other than a center (or not trading the #1 overall pick) would be a glorified cop-out for Cleveland.

Related articles

• Report: Cavs narrow No. 1 pick to Nerlens Noel or Alex Len (tracking.si.com)
• 2013 NBA Draft Preview (greenhousesports.wordpress.com)
• Vote For Nerlens Noel’s Draft Night Suit (allball.blogs.nba.com)
• 2013 NBA Draft: Full 1st Round Mock Draft (sidelinemob.com)